It certainly looks like we are on the brink of war.
I know the current administration is hell bent on destroying this nation from within, but I hadn't quite calculated that they would think the destruction is going so slowly that they need to get us entangled in a war with a nuclear power.
We just authorized sending tanks to Ukraine.
There is no way Russia sees this move as anything but an act of war (they're already retaliating in Ukraine). I'm sure in their mind, financing and small arms aid up to this point was borderline. And now Ukraine is renewing their ask for air support as well. I have few doubts we will provide it. Lots of articles here, all supporting these thoughts. Read through them as you have time. It does not look promising.
Russia retaliates with mass missile attack on Ukraine after tanks promise | First Thing
Ssending tanks is seen as growing ‘direct involvement in the conflict’ from US and Nato, Kremlin says. Plus, how did America’s eggs get absurdly expensive?
Kremlin says U.S.-supplied tanks will 'burn' in Ukraine
The Kremlin said on Wednesday that any Abrams battle tanks supplied to Ukraine by the United States would "burn", dismissing the expected delivery as an expensive folly.
Ukraine got its tanks. Now it wants jet fighters too
Discussions are underway about supplying Kyiv with modern aircraft, despite Western fears of escalation.
Defense Leaders Pledge New Ukraine Support
Following the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said the nations are working together very smoothly to deliver to Ukraine the equipment it needs to defend
-
@...: 30380294497947/comments/
World War 3 Incoming..be ready...
Yes, be ready. Once the first button is pushed, it'll all be over in a matter of minutes. It will be very hot, then very, very cold.
Make your peace now, before it's too late. You don't want to be left behind.
6 -
Some sources online are claiming the US military has moved to Defcon 2.
0 -
Things certainly are not good.
3 -
wifetrained: 30380294497947/comments/
What do you think will happen if Ukraine attempts to retake the Crimean Peninsula?
I think they will get their butts handed to them.
The land bridge to Crimea is a chokepoint that is easily defended unless Ukraine can completely control the airspace at the point of attack. Ukraine has no ability to flank the Russians via an amphibious assault, and the Russian Black Sea fleet, even though it has been roundly discredited, will allow for re-supply of Russian forces and will be able to engage any ground attack which will be forced into a very small area.
IMO, any Ukrainian repatriation of the Crimean peninsula will have to be part of a negotiated settlement that would by necessity be after Putin leaves or is removed from office.
3 -
Don McManus: 30380294497947/comments/
https://forums.gunbroker.com/discussion/comment/11377995#Comment_11377995
I think they will get their butts handed to them.
The land bridge to Crimea is a chokepoint that is easily defended unless Ukraine can completely control the airspace at the point of attack. Ukraine has no ability to flank the Russians via an amphibious assault, and the Russian Black Sea fleet, even though it has been roundly discredited, will allow for re-supply of Russian forces and will be able to engage any ground attack which will be forced into a very small area.
IMO, any Ukrainian repatriation of the Crimean peninsula will have to be part of a negotiated settlement that would by necessity be after Putin leaves or is removed from office.
Totally agree. And two things: I don't see Putin being ousted and I don't see them agreeing either way.
6 -
Don McManus: 30380294497947/comments/
https://forums.gunbroker.com/discussion/comment/11377995#Comment_11377995
I think they will get their butts handed to them.
The land bridge to Crimea is a chokepoint that is easily defended unless Ukraine can completely control the airspace at the point of attack. Ukraine has no ability to flank the Russians via an amphibious assault, and the Russian Black Sea fleet, even though it has been roundly discredited, will allow for re-supply of Russian forces and will be able to engage any ground attack which will be forced into a very small area.
IMO, any Ukrainian repatriation of the Crimean peninsula will have to be part of a negotiated settlement that would by necessity be after Putin leaves or is removed from office.
Well Don, now it's getting a little interesting. The German government approved transferring 178 Leopard 1 tanks and later that same day it was announce that an additional 100 Leopard 1A5 tanks would be purchased for Ukraine from Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands. This is in addition to those pledged by Portugal and possibly Belgium. While none are operational and require repair or total overhaul it does provide some food for thought. The only thing I see as an issue (if all this is true) is the ammunition required. The original model Leopard 1 main gun is 105mm and ammunition supply could be a serious issue because of very limited production worldwide. The A5 model mounts the same 120mm smoothbore gun currently in use and ammunition is more plentiful and varied.
Now tanks are being pledged in meaningful numbers and obviously sending a message to Putin. Those numbers are sufficient to equip 2-3+ brigades and those numbers could have some impact on the tactical picture if it actually comes to fruition. Again, in practical terms this is 1-2 years away and this becomes a more interesting game of poker. Everyone's raising, no one's calling, and the stakes are becoming more dangerous as a result. The Chechen leader just openly threatened that Poland, among other European countries, is likely next. At this point its blather to be sure, however words do have consequences.
0 -
I thought the Germans did not go to the 120 mm smoothbore until the Leopard 2 was launched, but may be mistaken.
The Leopard 1 and 1A5 are basically medium, not main battle tanks and are a generation behind even the Russian T-72 and probably not a capable as the obsolescent yet heavier US M-60 other than the upgraded fire control systems that would be carried. Thier armor is not competitive in any way shape or form to a modern MBT, so frankly I confess to being a little confused as to what their value would be.
I
0 -
Actually, the Leopard-1 tank, weight wise, was about the same as a T-72 and was considered a main battle tank when fielded. The A5's turret was designed to accommodate the 120mm gun, but the Leopard 2 came online. They may be considered medium tanks now when compared to the Leopard 2, Challenger, and Abrams tanks but then again there's a 20-ton difference in weight. If the pledged tanks are provided, they all have to be gone over and I would assume the 120 main gun would be retrofitted. I see no other option as it's been repeatedly stated that 105mm ammo is not that readily available. That is if they follow thru, saying it is one thing, doing it is another.
The decision to go this route may be based on the road and bridge weight restrictions in Ukraine. After all it was part of the Soviet Union and even when it became independent all of its equipment was of Soviet origin, designed and built with those weight limits in mind. I would guess that the "value", besides numbers, would be operating in a combined arms environment and providing direct gunfire support. Their impact will be purely local as the numbers will outfit brigades not divisions.
0 -
Now its reported that the US is providing targeting data that enables Ukraine to hit Russian targets. Now I would call that an escalation.
6 -
Well Don, this looks to be a bit revealing. The Polish PM just announced that Poland isn't going to give up any of its F-16's now. That it has to be a "Nato" decision. They simply don't have enough to donate and provide for its own defense plus they would have to train and equip the ground staff to support the aircraft. I would guess that the Dutch's potential offer is now on the back burner as well too. From a purely military perspective I can see the point. Not all of the Polish aircraft are front line per se. Some are used for conversion training; some are used to train ground and maintenance crews while others are in various states of repair. So, I get it, while the Dutch have sufficient numbers of F-35 on hand that allowed them to retire their F-16 inventory but now these may be off the table. This is a strange strategy to pursue in providing just enough ground equipment to achieve some success and dominance but no combat aircraft that would actually assist the Ukrainians in defeating the Russians.
Neither combatant has command of the air which limits their success on the ground thereby dragging the war out. Secondhand tanks requiring 1-2 years to refurbish prior to delivery extends this conflict even further. That seems to confirm your thought that the plan is make this war unsustainable for the Russians. Maybe force an internal coup to replace Putin or for the Russian population to cry no more.
Are we seeing another chapter of "containment" or "limited war" in play here because I don't see where that strategy has ever worked out too well.
0 -
wifetrained, your assessment of the war becoming unsustainable for the Russians may be spot on.
In the late 1980s, the USSR had complete air superiority in Afghanistan until the CIA began supplying surface to air Stinger missiles to the Mujahadeen. For the first time in years, the MI-24 and SU-25 ground attack aircraft became highly vulnerable to a ragtag guerilla army equipped with rifles and Toyota pickup trucks. Losses became high enough that Soviet pilots no longer felt comfortable over Afghan airspace. That, and the huge cost of fighting a war that the Soviet people became disenchanted with led to the eventual withdrawal.
0 -
wifetrained: 30380294497947/comments/
Well Don, this looks to be a bit revealing. The Polish PM just announced that Poland isn't going to give up any of its F-16's now. That it has to be a "Nato" decision. They simply don't have enough to donate and provide for its own defense plus they would have to train and equip the ground staff to support the aircraft. I would guess that the Dutch's potential offer is now on the back burner as well too. From a purely military perspective I can see the point. Not all of the Polish aircraft are front line per se. Some are used for conversion training; some are used to train ground and maintenance crews while others are in various states of repair. So, I get it, while the Dutch have sufficient numbers of F-35 on hand that allowed them to retire their F-16 inventory but now these may be off the table. This is a strange strategy to pursue in providing just enough ground equipment to achieve some success and dominance but no combat aircraft that would actually assist the Ukrainians in defeating the Russians.
Neither combatant has command of the air which limits their success on the ground thereby dragging the war out. Secondhand tanks requiring 1-2 years to refurbish prior to delivery extends this conflict even further. That seems to confirm your thought that the plan is make this war unsustainable for the Russians. Maybe force an internal coup to replace Putin or for the Russian population to cry no more.
Are we seeing another chapter of "containment" or "limited war" in play here because I don't see where that strategy has ever worked out too well.
If you are correct, I think Putin will simply escalate, and possibly go nuclear to prove his power. I don't see much holding him back.
3 -
There are too many things regarding this conflict that made no sense from the get-go.
3 -
Well, here's an interesting bit of news. Looking like things are progressing toward war:
United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately
MOSCOW (Reuters) -The United States has told its citizens to leave Russia immediately due to the war in Ukraine and the risk of arbitrary arrest or harassment by Russian law enforcement agencies. "U.S. citizens residing or travelling in Russia should depart immediately," the U.S. embassy in Moscow said. "Do not travel to Russia," it added.3 -
Mr. Perfect: 30380294497947/comments/
Well, here's an interesting bit of news. Looking like things are progressing toward war:
https://frontier.yahoo.com/news/united-states-tells-citizens-depart-063057247.html
What's more concerning is how this conflict is being prosecuted and manipulated. The drips and drabs of equipment from various NATO countries. The pledge of a large number of older tanks which happen to be in need of refurbishment before delivery, which could take up to 2 years. The initial pledge of F-16's that's now walked back over issues that seem silly since they knew what was going to be needed in the first place. Everything seems geared to drag this out longer and longer. Again, I state that these leaders (term used loosely) have no concept of what they're doing and seem oblivious to the fact that the Russians care less about their casualty numbers. They have a very long history when it comes to throwing people into the meat grinder.
The head of NATO just mentioned that the Ukrainians are using ammunition faster than it can be produced...REALLY???!!!??? People can blather on all the want about the scope of this war but in overall terms this is a very limited conflict as conflicts go. If true, then how was NATO going to defend Europe with such a limited supply of weapons and ammunition to start with and insufficient manufacturing capacity to replenish stocks. There's simply something very wrong here.
3 -
Mr. Perfect: 30380294497947/comments/
Well, here's an interesting bit of news. Looking like things are progressing toward war:
https://frontier.yahoo.com/news/united-states-tells-citizens-depart-063057247.html
Read the comments.. they're blaming Trump..the amount of Stupidity in this country is Overwhelming...
9 -
@...: 30380294497947/comments/
https://forums.gunbroker.com/discussion/comment/11379266#Comment_11379266
Read the comments.. they're blaming Trump..the amount of Stupidity in this country is Overwhelming...
And they're in power. The blatant stupidity shown is dwarfed only by their arrogance.
3 -
Quick... Look Over There... Aliens....
9 -
@...: 30380294497947/comments/
Quick... Look Over There... Aliens....
And I bet they're illegal ones.
0 -
wifetrained: 30380294497947/comments/
https://forums.gunbroker.com/discussion/comment/11379972#Comment_11379972
And I bet they're illegal ones.
you know you can't call them that, they are undocumented............
6 -
But you seem to forget that Americans are Stupid...we keep proving that over and over... might as well own it.. and deal with the consequences...
6 -
Real americans are not stupid, it is the liberal democrats that fit that catagory
15 -
75 percent believe whatever the MSM tells them...and they fall for the B.S. every time... every time...in my book... that's not smart... the real Americans always take the high road..and get their a$$ handed to them every time.. you would think they would have learned by now....
6 -
We have not " won " a war since WWII
And the road to WWIII is getting mighty short
I do not think it would end well for any one especially us
Just one nuke or dirty bomb inside our country borders would be the beginning of the end
Dad but dopey Joe and his handlers sem to desperately want it maye to use as a complete reset of our country
Giving ukrane 500 billion and endless military equipment
To me is just spitting on the communist country's face
Russia China ,even NK and others USa has played bully on the block with
Joining sides is not that much of a stretch to put the USA in the back seat
I dearly hope not but with anti American Joe in charge
It's possible
0 -
Even if it ends tomorrow.. Russia will not forget.. the other countries and America will be paying for a long..long time..no going back now..
6 -
As I have previously stated, there's a dangerous game being played here by the US and Nato. Biden recently stated that, on the advice of his military, that Ukraine doesn't need any F-16's which is patently absurd. You can't take and hold ground without uncontested control of the air, it's that simple and there's plenty of history to support that fact. Everything to date indicates the desire to drag this conflict out for years. We've supplied a limited amount of SAM's which have now forced the Russians to launch many of its air strikes from within its own airspace. Any heavy weapons supplied have limited range and as a result their effectiveness is more tactical and local in nature and not strategic.
It's been repeatedly stated that "we're in it for the long haul", "for as long as it takes". "Regime change", and so on but it raises the stakes for everyone. One thing about the "brain trust" currently infesting DC and that's there ain't a whole lot of brains engaged and what are ain't to be trusted one frickin bit.
9 -
I am seeing increased rumblings about a draft. Folks this is not good, for many reasons, not the least of which is who do they think they're going to draft? Narry a kid out there that can run for five minutes or carry 45 lbs worth of gear.
0 -
Mr. Perfect: 30380294497947/comments/
I am seeing increased rumblings about a draft. Folks this is not good, for many reasons, not the least of which is who do they think they're going to draft? Narry a kid out there that can run for five minutes or carry 45 lbs worth of gear.
45 lbs, that's it????!!!!!??? I was an RTO in a lrrp unit and my ruck weighed 100+ pounds on average. That's just my ruck, I still had my LBE gear (4 mag pouches, 12 mags, 4 grenades, 2 canteens, first aid pouch, compass, bayonet, cleaning kit, etc.) my weapon and anything else I could stuff in my pockets. Add a main parachute and a reserve if a jump was needed, talk about some weight. If they can't handle 45 pounds at a minimum, then we are in trouble.
3 -
Yeah. We are in trouble.
Doubt seriously there is Serious talk about a "Draft," though.
Political Suicide.
0 -
Once upon a time, I used to think that every able bodied citizen should have to serve a 2 year commitment to our Armed Forces right out of high school.
Now days with the way things are, my thinking has changed a lot mostly due to our misguided, self serving, out of touch leadership.
Be better to make sure that ALL politicians be veterans before having a right to public office!
6
Please sign in to leave a comment.
Comments
109 comments