The Myth of an al Qaeda Takeover of Iraq
The Myth of an al Qaeda Takeover of Iraq
Thursday, 01 February 2007
By Ted Galen Carpenter
"The notion of al Qaeda using Iraq as a sanctuary is a specter -- a canard that the perpetrators of the current catastrophe use to frighten people into supporting a fatally flawed, and seemingly endless, nation-building debacle."
In his State of the Union Address last Tuesday, President Bush warned that if the U.S. fails in Iraq, al Qaeda will gain a safe haven from which to launch attacks against America. It is an argument that the President, other members of the administration, and neoconservative hawks have been using for years.
In late 2005, then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld warned that al Qaeda leaders "would turn Iraq into what Afghanistan was before 9/11 -- a haven for terrorist recruitment and training and a launching pad for attacks against U.S. interests and our fellow citizens."
Despite such scare mongering, it is highly improbable that al Qaeda could use Iraq as the kind of safe haven it enjoyed in Afghanistan. There, the organization had the protection of an entrenched, friendly government, which it will not have in Iraq. Al Qaeda also had a much larger force in Afghanistan -- an estimated 18,000 fighters. Even the U.S. government concedes that there are fewer than 2,000 al Qaeda fighters in Iraq, and the Iraq Study Group put the figure at only 1,300.
Indeed, foreign fighters make up a relatively small component of the Sunni insurgency against the U.S. and British occupation forces. It strains credulity to imagine 1,300 fighters (and foreigners at that) dominating a country of 26 million people.
The challenge for al Qaeda in Iraq would be even more daunting than those raw numbers suggest. While the organization has some support among Sunni Arabs there, opinion even among that segment of the population is surprisingly negative.
A September 2006 poll conducted by the University of Maryland's prestigious Program on International Policy Attitudes found that 94 percent of Iraqi Sunnis had a somewhat or highly unfavorable attitude toward al Qaeda.
As the violence of al Qaeda attacks has mounted, and the victims are increasingly Iraqis, not Americans, many Sunnis have turned against the terrorists. There have been a growing number of reports during the past year of armed conflicts between Iraqi Sunnis and foreign fighters.
And the anemic Sunni support for al Qaeda is overshadowed by the intense Shiite and Kurdish hostility to the group. Almost to a person, they loathe al Qaeda. The PIPA poll showed that 98 percent of Shiite respondents and 100 percent of Kurdish respondents had somewhat or very unfavorable views of the organization.
The notion that a Shiite-Kurdish-dominated government would tolerate Iraq becoming a safe haven for al Qaeda is improbable on its face. Even if U.S. troops left Iraq, the successor government would continue to be dominated by Kurds and Shiites, since they make up more than 80 percent of Iraq's population. And, in marked contrast to the situation under Saddam Hussein, they now control the military and police.
At best, al Qaeda could hope for a tenuous presence in predominantly Sunni areas of the country while being incessantly stalked and harassed by government forces -- and probably hostile Iraqi Sunnis as well. That doesn't exactly sound like a reliable base of operations for attacks on America.
Senator Chuck Hagel, a Republican of Nebraska, has it right. "I have never been persuaded to believe that whether we stay there six months, a year, or two years, that if we would leave, that somehow Iraq would turn into a haven for terrorists."
His skepticism is well placed.
The notion of al Qaeda using Iraq as a sanctuary is a specter -- a canard that the perpetrators of the current catastrophe use to frighten people into supporting a fatally flawed, and seemingly endless, nation-building debacle. 9COMMENT BY HAIRY: Well, it works on a lot of the GB members. LOL)
Ted Galen Carpenter is vice president for defense and foreign policy studies and co-author of Exiting Iraq: Why the U.S. Must End the Military Occupation and Renew the War Against Al Qaeda (2004).
Thursday, 01 February 2007
By Ted Galen Carpenter
"The notion of al Qaeda using Iraq as a sanctuary is a specter -- a canard that the perpetrators of the current catastrophe use to frighten people into supporting a fatally flawed, and seemingly endless, nation-building debacle."
In his State of the Union Address last Tuesday, President Bush warned that if the U.S. fails in Iraq, al Qaeda will gain a safe haven from which to launch attacks against America. It is an argument that the President, other members of the administration, and neoconservative hawks have been using for years.
In late 2005, then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld warned that al Qaeda leaders "would turn Iraq into what Afghanistan was before 9/11 -- a haven for terrorist recruitment and training and a launching pad for attacks against U.S. interests and our fellow citizens."
Despite such scare mongering, it is highly improbable that al Qaeda could use Iraq as the kind of safe haven it enjoyed in Afghanistan. There, the organization had the protection of an entrenched, friendly government, which it will not have in Iraq. Al Qaeda also had a much larger force in Afghanistan -- an estimated 18,000 fighters. Even the U.S. government concedes that there are fewer than 2,000 al Qaeda fighters in Iraq, and the Iraq Study Group put the figure at only 1,300.
Indeed, foreign fighters make up a relatively small component of the Sunni insurgency against the U.S. and British occupation forces. It strains credulity to imagine 1,300 fighters (and foreigners at that) dominating a country of 26 million people.
The challenge for al Qaeda in Iraq would be even more daunting than those raw numbers suggest. While the organization has some support among Sunni Arabs there, opinion even among that segment of the population is surprisingly negative.
A September 2006 poll conducted by the University of Maryland's prestigious Program on International Policy Attitudes found that 94 percent of Iraqi Sunnis had a somewhat or highly unfavorable attitude toward al Qaeda.
As the violence of al Qaeda attacks has mounted, and the victims are increasingly Iraqis, not Americans, many Sunnis have turned against the terrorists. There have been a growing number of reports during the past year of armed conflicts between Iraqi Sunnis and foreign fighters.
And the anemic Sunni support for al Qaeda is overshadowed by the intense Shiite and Kurdish hostility to the group. Almost to a person, they loathe al Qaeda. The PIPA poll showed that 98 percent of Shiite respondents and 100 percent of Kurdish respondents had somewhat or very unfavorable views of the organization.
The notion that a Shiite-Kurdish-dominated government would tolerate Iraq becoming a safe haven for al Qaeda is improbable on its face. Even if U.S. troops left Iraq, the successor government would continue to be dominated by Kurds and Shiites, since they make up more than 80 percent of Iraq's population. And, in marked contrast to the situation under Saddam Hussein, they now control the military and police.
At best, al Qaeda could hope for a tenuous presence in predominantly Sunni areas of the country while being incessantly stalked and harassed by government forces -- and probably hostile Iraqi Sunnis as well. That doesn't exactly sound like a reliable base of operations for attacks on America.
Senator Chuck Hagel, a Republican of Nebraska, has it right. "I have never been persuaded to believe that whether we stay there six months, a year, or two years, that if we would leave, that somehow Iraq would turn into a haven for terrorists."
His skepticism is well placed.
The notion of al Qaeda using Iraq as a sanctuary is a specter -- a canard that the perpetrators of the current catastrophe use to frighten people into supporting a fatally flawed, and seemingly endless, nation-building debacle. 9COMMENT BY HAIRY: Well, it works on a lot of the GB members. LOL)
Ted Galen Carpenter is vice president for defense and foreign policy studies and co-author of Exiting Iraq: Why the U.S. Must End the Military Occupation and Renew the War Against Al Qaeda (2004).
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Ahhhh! Ted Galen Carpenter! The guy who thinks it's okay for Iran to have nukes, the UN should rule the US, and legalizing drugs will put an end to terrorism!
Yep, I'm going to listen to him!0 -
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dheff,
quote: The guy who thinks it's okay for Iran to have nukes, the UN should rule the US, and legalizing drugs will put an end to terrorism!
Iran having nukes wouldn't be the end of the world.
The UN running the U.S. would.
And legalizing drugs... let's just say that if hippies are for it, I'm against it![:p][:D]0 -
If Iran gets nuclear weapons, it will be the end of their world. 0 -
"President Bush warned that if the U.S. fails in Iraq, al Qaeda will gain a safe haven from which to launch attacks against America"
President Bush said it. I believe it. 'Nuff said.
Name me one thing he has said about Iraq that has been wrong.0 -
quote:Originally posted by allen griggs
"President Bush warned that if the U.S. fails in Iraq, al Qaeda will gain a safe haven from which to launch attacks against America"
President Bush said it. I believe it. 'Nuff said.
Name me one thing he has said about Iraq that has been wrong.
Ha ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha
Well, now I've got to clean up that spilled coffee. Thanks a lot!0 -
I'm sure that the people who see no danger in Iran acquiring a nuclear arsenal would not have seen the danger in the 1930s of Nazi Germany building its military. The Iranian leadership has proclaimed a desire to destroy Israel and a nuke attack on the Jewish state would likely result in a nuclear retaliation that in itself would be devastating and would almost certainly lead to expanding conflicts as the rest of the world's nations take sides in this exchange.
While I doubt that al Qaeda would take over Iraq if we leave and the society totally collapses, I think it would be reasonable to assume that there is, at least, a very strong possibility that Iraq would become a haven for terror groups waging war against the enemies of radical Islam.
Is this not exactly what happened in Afghanistan? The Soviets pulled out leading to the ascension of the Taliban. When there is a vacuum of power the strong will emerge in control. Right now the radical Islamic terrorists are the strong ones, not us. They have the will to do whatever it takes to win, not us. They are united while we are divided (excluding Palestine where the terrorists now appear to be fighting each other).
I do not hold much hope for a positive future. The last time we won a war was in the 1940s when we were willing to do what was necessary and were much more united as a nation than we are now. I don't think we have what it takes to win a war. Not when there are so many amongst us (at least we assume they are actually WITH us) who deny the danger posed by radical Islam and oppose taking action in the face of escalating threats.0 -
SP, you know some here want Iran to obtain a nuke and use it on Israel. I think we all know who they are.
[V]0 -
Kind of like the myth of Hairy having any common sense at all.
Sorry I almost stooped to his level. Sure is funny how like most liberals he cannot have a courteous conversation with someone of a dissenting view point. Instead he goes immediately to insults. I for one am threw with him and his posts.0 -
quote:Originally posted by fastcarsgofast
Kind of like the myth of Hairy having any common sense at all.
Sorry I almost stooped to his level. Sure is funny how like most liberals he cannot have a courteous conversation with someone of a dissenting view point. Instead he goes immediately to insults. I for one am threw with him and his posts.
ROFLMAO
Don't give up fast. Some of us here are reasonable.0 -
quote:Originally posted by HAIRY
quote:Originally posted by allen griggs
"President Bush warned that if the U.S. fails in Iraq, al Qaeda will gain a safe haven from which to launch attacks against America"
President Bush said it. I believe it. 'Nuff said.
Name me one thing he has said about Iraq that has been wrong.
Ha ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha
Well, now I've got to clean up that spilled coffee. Thanks a lot!0 -
Everybody has been through with HAIRY for years.
He keeps the rest of us honest and focused.
If he went away, I'd miss him.
By the way... Right on, SP.
D.0
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