Blue Book Accuracy...
Hello,
I recently purchased a subscription to the 23rd edition of the blue book publications Gun Values. My question is, how reliable is this? I see a significant difference in what the BB says a rifle is worth at 100% versus what many of the rifles are offered for on GunBroker. I also don't see a good description of what differentiates a rifle condition as being 100% vs 95% vs 95% vs 90%. I'm guessing 100% means factory mint with box and paperwork. What if it's perfect with no box? Is that 98%?. Amazing how quickly the prices drop. I love the concept of Gunbroker but frankly, after spending numerous hours studying the offerings, it appears to be far less a public auction and far more a retail outlet for several dealers. Has anyone seen any "real" online auction houses for personally owned weapons being offered for sale?
I recently purchased a subscription to the 23rd edition of the blue book publications Gun Values. My question is, how reliable is this? I see a significant difference in what the BB says a rifle is worth at 100% versus what many of the rifles are offered for on GunBroker. I also don't see a good description of what differentiates a rifle condition as being 100% vs 95% vs 95% vs 90%. I'm guessing 100% means factory mint with box and paperwork. What if it's perfect with no box? Is that 98%?. Amazing how quickly the prices drop. I love the concept of Gunbroker but frankly, after spending numerous hours studying the offerings, it appears to be far less a public auction and far more a retail outlet for several dealers. Has anyone seen any "real" online auction houses for personally owned weapons being offered for sale?
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There are many private individuals selling on GunBroker, and there are plenty of used guns on the auction. And yes, there are several dealers selling new guns, too. It's just a matter of using the search parameters.
Now, about the Blue Book. Fjestad supposedly compiles and averages prices reported from select dealers around the country. I personally believe he does a few, but just adds X% to last year's Blue Book for most of it. I'd love to sell stuff at Blue Book! At best, it's a decent reference source with some baseline prices to compare with.0 -
the blue book for me gives me an idea if a gun is pretty valuable or not.
more or less a starting point for value... like for grandpas 1874 sharps rifle in very good condition drewl drewl lol. i would like to buy it from him but dont have any where near enough money to buy it to be fair with him.0 -
shawdowhawke,
You've pretty much sumed up my observations. I've had new guns delivered, unpackaged them and found they were in worse condition than some guns I've purchased used and owned for 10 years. I seem to prefer guns manufactured in the 40's, 50's, 60's and 70's, and the difference in price between 90 percent and 96 percent can be significant.
Like you I think the concept is great, but conception and reality do not agree. These are contrived auctions, not real auctions, and we can't change that. We have to deal with high starting bids, "secret" reserves that can cause multiple bids just to figure out what the dealer is trying to sell the item for, and last but not least the practice of having friends bid up an item to stimulate interest and other bids. Look at how many guns go off auction and never receive a bid. Guns just get reposted, I've bid on a manlicher .270 for about nine months and have been high bid 9 or 10 times but the bids never meet the reserve and it just keeps being relisted.
I consider the site as an entertainment site because the time spent does not translate into many good deals for me. It is entertainment and a place to learn, not necessarily a place to buy guns.0 -
I have copies of the Blue Books but seldom ever use them. Just as Black Gun's said, the book is a good source for baseline values, but in many cases it is out dated before it hits the press. Assault rifle prices are subject to all sorts of market forces and when Colt announced that they were discontinuing their line of DA revolvers those prices shot up and left the old book values behind. I've meet Steve at several SHOT Shows and he is a very nice fellow, but his task of keeping prices current in his book is just about impossible. I've been in the firearms business for over 25 years and you just can't print a price guide for firearms and expect it to stick. I'd suggest that you pick up a copy of Gunlist and check over those asking prices and then compare then with whatever reference book you are using and see if the book is in line with what is going on twice monthly in the market.
Condition is a very subjective term except in the case of NIB. That means new, unfired, and in the factory box with all of the papers. There is nothing mysterious about NIB and the easiset way in the world for a dealer to lose a customer forever is to sell him a new firearm that is not really new. If it has been fired even once it is not NIB and if the customer spots this you are dead in the water; he gets his money back, will never buy another gun from you and may spread the word that you either don't know your guns or you are a cheat. If I'm not sure the gun is new I'll say "appears unfired" and leave it at that. You can argue the fine points of 98% vs. 97% all day and end up right back where you started from but until collectable firearms are treated like coins and examined by experts, graded, and "slabbed" in a tamper proof Lexon box, firearms grading will always be hit and miss. Prices drop sharply as condition falls because the number of like firearms in that condition catagory rises, making them more common and less collectable.
Just like you I came to Gun Broker looking for deals on firearms and just like you, I formed the exact same opinions about the GB auction system. I'm here now just for the forum.
Mark T. Christian0 -
In the front of the blue book he says,
quote: Although every reasonable effort has been made to compile an accurate and reliable guide, gun prices may vary significantly (especially auction prices) depending on such factors as the locality of the sale, the number of sales we were able to consider, and economic conditions.
This book is just a place to start for current prices. You have to keep up with what the market is doing.
There are still some buys to be had here, if you watch real close.
The gene pool needs chlorine.0 -
No offense Mr. Christian but all "new" firearms are "fired" before they leave the manufacturers. In fact if I were to find a "new" firearm that had appeared to have never been fired I would be a little nervous.
"If your gonna be stupid, go find a democrat."0 -
Great information and thoughts guys. I appreciate your experience and insight into this formidable topic. I certainly do not characterize myself as a collector and am a mediocre shooter in civilian class arms. I selected the Blue Book not for it's quality (I had no way to guage this) but rather because it appeared to be the only single point source available. I have a specific interest in just a couple of firearm types and wanted to get the absolute best price I could. Some of those prices on GunBroker seem almost reasonable until you add in the cost of shipping and the FFL transfer fees. At that point, you might as well go down to the local sporting goods store and buy it across the counter. I'll keep watching though. Who knows, I may get lucky and find that one good buy. No doubt that the best value thus far has been this forum. Good answers to anyones questions. You guys are the best.
Semper Fi Gentlemen,
ShadowHawke
479th Tactical, USAF, 1980-84
Sgt., Weapons specialist
"Lord, we ask that you hear our prayers, ignore those of our enemies, and help us to send those bastards to hell!".0 -
I just knew I should have put that test fired at the factory disclaimer in that post! I hardly thought that anyone would believe new in the box means anything other than a firearm as shipped from the factory so I omitted it. PLEASE guys, Mr. Christian was my grandfather, call me Mark.
Mark T. Christian0 -
The Blue Book is a guide. It has a disclaimer that it is a guide only and that prices can vary depending on the region, season, etc.. It is helpful but not absolute. Some items are overpriced, while others are underpriced. I find its information on introduction dates, etc. handy. There is a lot of information about grading, but, again, that is subjective as mentioned. It does say that the 100% figure usually assumes new-in-the-box. And yes, the price fall from 100% is geometric in proportion. The price curve is really steep at the top. Condition is everything, just like coins.
While there are a lot of silly prices on the auction sites, there are also low or no reserve auctions that work just fine. I buy quite a few guns on the auction sites each year, and have gotten some bargains. Some sellers catch a live one once in a while, which explains some of the silly prices. They keep hoping! Some are rewarded by an ignorant buyer arriving on the scene. For example, a Seecamp LWS 32 recently sold for $595 to probably a newcomer who was the only bidder. Lately, Seecamps seldom get over $400-$450, even though many sellers still try like it was several years ago when they would bring $600-$800.
Sometimes, just finding a long-sought-after piece is more important than bargain price. I have been amazed at what shows up on eBay in regard to accessories and boxes, etc.. I have looked for forty years for some boxes and, in one case, two rare boxes of the same type came up within a month or two. That is what happens when there are millions of sellers and buyers brought together. Timing is also interesting. I bought a rare early Smith & Wesson box for about $75, which I thought was a steal, and within a month or so, a nearly identical box brought close to $200, which I feel reflected its true market value.
The term "unfired" is often used to describe a gun that looks completely unused. Most knowledgeable gun people know firearms are proof-fired and function-fired at the factory. When the "unfired" description is used, it is meant to describe a gun that has never been fired since leaving the factory. Everyone knows, or should know, the term does not mean "never fired ever." Depending on the firearm, some can be fired a lot and never show the evidence. However, many semi-automatics show evidence of firing very rapidly. If a gun looks "unfired," that puts it at a high level of condition even if it has been fired a few times but does not show it.
One last thought on the assault weapons values being affected by the clones. I disagree. The "real things" have held their value because to those who want a "real" assault weapon, a clone is unacceptable. I am sorry, but a Pre-Ban Colt AR-15A2 Carbine with collapsible stock is not diminished in value by a similar-appearing rifle with a pinned stock and a muzzle brake instead of a flash suppressor. I have always tbought the manufacturers missed the boat by not offering rifles that look exactly like "assault weapons," but which have fake flash suppressors that look exactly like flash suppressors, but which have no actual cuts in the device. The bayonet lugs could even be fake, with no way to actually attach a bayonet to the lump. There is a going industry sleeving flash suppressors and attaching them permanently to post-ban rifles, where they look very much like flash suppressors except on very close inpsection when the black matte sleeve can be seen at the bottom of the cutouts.
I will keep buying the Blue Book to keep up with trends and to have its valuable information about obscure firearms one sometimes encounters.0 -
Blue book is like the famous used car book, it has a lot to do with what part of the country your in, what popular where your at.
Other references are, Krause publications( standard catalog of friearms), Stoegers (gun traders guide), Flaydermans(guide to antique american firearms) & others.
But They Are All Guides.
100% does not mean NIB(new in the box)NORE does shooting it 1,2,3,or 20 times then putting it back in the box with this paper work mean NIB.
If it was a car it would be a demo. even though it has 50 miles on it it could be 100%0 -
Judge Colt, your comment reminds me of going to the same gun show, seeing the same dealer with the same guns ar the same tables for several years (it seems) with the same high price, that only seems to go up. 0 -
personaly i use a combination of factors to arrive at an arms value.
1. reference books. i check out at least 3 books to arrive at a value.
2. web sights. i check them out to see what sells, and at what price.
3. gun shows. i get a good feel for what a gun is selling for, its relative regional availabilty, and value based on condition.
4. CAPT. KIRK, MARK CHRISTIAN, SAXON PIG, BLACK ROSES, ICONCLAST,etc... i check out the gun with my friends and colleagues here on GB.
5. auction house lists and guides. i subscribe to several, and they give me a feel fore value, and demand.
6. local gun shops. (the least reliable scource)
there is no instant cure, no imediate one stop place to get that exact value. a little research goes a long way. best regards, mike.
What other dungeon is so dark as ones own heart, what jailer so inexorable as ones own mind.0 -
Nothing is absolute. If all guides are accurate we would not need "Experts"
As previously stated there are " bargains" and there are "buys" so "caveat emptor".
I have purchased a Ruger KP89 that was a "bargain" and I have purchased a .25 ACP auto that I thought was a "buy".
Either way GB was a guide and it also was entertainment. If you are looking for Herman Goering's personal Walther PP as a "bargain" you won't find it here but maybe you will find it at next Satursay's garage sale.
GB is a marketplace and it is up to the buyer to know what he wants and to only pay as much as what he thinks it is worth.
As far as this forum goes "PRICELESS"0
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