WHAT is RECESSION doing to GUN VALUES
How have used gun prices/values changed over the past 12 months? I am asked that about a collection in an estate. My observation, based mostly on the auctions and on the types of guns I am interested in - is the lower end stuff has lost value and the collectible and higher priced pieces have increased somewhat.
People may put money into the better items as a hedge against the expected rise of inflation. Others may need to turn their least cherished pieces into cash.
Mine is at best tunnel vision but this Gun Broker forum is probably the best possible cross section of opinion there is. Your thoughtful comment and observation will be much appreciated. Thanks
People may put money into the better items as a hedge against the expected rise of inflation. Others may need to turn their least cherished pieces into cash.
Mine is at best tunnel vision but this Gun Broker forum is probably the best possible cross section of opinion there is. Your thoughtful comment and observation will be much appreciated. Thanks
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I would venture to say the fear of government repression of fireams ownership under the Obama "regime" has brought about an increase in the costs/values of many if not most firearms, especially the categories like semi-automatic rifles and high-capacity handguns. I have seen no fire sale bargains of collector pieces; they seem to be holding their own through the recession. A recent firearms auction I attended made me wonder if there really is a recession. It didn't seem to affect the bid prices at all, across a 65 gun collection of varied pieces; they went uniformly high in my opinion. 0 -
IMO The current financial situation doesnt affect the vintage collectible market much. There are plenty of folks out there sitting on money that are willing plop down cash for a rare old Parkers, Winchesters, Colts, etc. I dont think this market is recession proof, but I would bet it will weather this dip and come out fine at the other end.
I dont like new guns and it seems any new gun you buy always looses value over the short run.
With the U.S. population still on the rise, I think that good old American made guns will remain a popular item with collectors that are just getting started, or collectors that have been at it for decades.0 -
quote:Originally posted by us55840
IF soyotomayer is approved for the supreme court, value of all firearms will increase. She is anothe rabid antigun nut that does not believe in the 2nd amendment to the United States contitution. [:(]
She may not, but she's replacing a liberal judge as well, so its not clear that the status quo will change all that much.
To answer the original question, I've been tracking this a bit, and this is my impression:
a. Prices of all military style semi-automatic guns have shot through the roof since right after the election, in particular AR-15 and AK-47 type guns.
Most suppliers inventories of surplus SKS rifles have been exhausted and prices on those have really taken off in just the last few months.
Bu at THIS point, prices are starting to go down, as demand is dropping and the increased supply is catching up. I think in a few months its *possible* that there will be a glut of AK and AR-15 type rifles and prices may even drop to pre-election levels or below. Milsurp SKS rifles. . .maybe not so much since there is no new supply of them to be had.
b. Speaking of military surplus weapons, the recent Obama scare has reduced many supplies of these. Useable military surplus rifles and pistols are still available, but are scarcer than just a few months ago, and in some cases, more expensive.
c. Rare guns are still valuable. Prices don't seem to have dropped significantly or even at all on truly desirable collectors pieces, antiques, and so forth.
Reasoning here is a bit complicated. In a bad economy, there may be more incentive for people to sell collector's guns to raise money, but at the same time, there is both less money floating around to buy them *AND* somewhat of an increased interest as potentially inflation-resistant assets.
One die-hard collector I know has said that a lot more really scarce collectors' type guns are going on the market now, the kind of stuff that you rarely see. (We're talking super-expensive guns with historical interest, eg, the kind owned by historical figures, etc).
If the economy continues to deteriorate, I think there will be more such sales. Whether or not they'll command superior prices remains to be seen.
d. In general, my impression is that "ordinary" used guns (ie not military style semi-automatics and not specialty collectors pieces) seem to be price-stable. They haven't gone up. . .they haven't gone down.
From what I can tell, Smith and Wesson revolvers, various service automatic pistols, sporting rifles, etc. . .these are more or less where they were before the election.
In GENERAL firearms (like any hard asset, including real estate, precious metals, etc) are a good hedge against inflation.
Ammo, maybe even more so.
Edit, in response to above quote:
quote:
Cartod:
I dont like new guns and it seems any new gun you buy always looses value over the short run.
This is true, but I don't think its economy dependent. Its also true of almost ANYTHING new you buy. For example, drive a new car off the dealer's lot, and 10% of its value vanishes.
Had you had the foresight to buy one of the above-mentioned military style rifles only 8 months ago, I think you could probably turn it around for a nice increment.
As a secondary matter, I think its fair to say that if you bought any quality new condition gun two years ago and left it unfired in its original box, you'd probably be able to entirely recoup your investment right now.
For example, prices on new first-tier pistols (SIGs, Smith and Wesson, etc) seem to increment a small amount every year.
Edit #2:
quote:Originally posted by RtWngExtrmst
The collapse of the stock market has also brought fresh money into the high quality firearm and collector market.
I think this is true to some extent, but there is a balancing counter-effect as well.
Like during ANY recession, there probably are more people interested in inflation-resistant investments right now, and that includes collectibles like guns, stamps, coins, etc.
On the other hand, the collapse of the market means that there are a lot of rich people who otherwise might have had disposable income who have just seen a tremendous fraction of their net worth disappear, not to mention are looking at reduced incomes going forward. Some of these people who might have otherwise been inclined to increase gun collections probably can't/won't do so now.0 -
rhmc24...since the election of BO we have seen a spike up generally in gun prices in my area. Same, of course, with ammunition and all its makings (my friends who reload are still complaining about how hard it is to get primers for certain loads). But older guns are like antiques and IMO hold their value very well, recession or not. I, too, have attended recent auctions in my area in the midAtlantic and have seen guns go for values that would indicate little or no recession effect. The old adage that one pays for what one gets is still certainly true in today's older gun market, at least in my area. I am not quite sure what you mean by "..lower end stuff" but quality still brings quality prices. For example, a 1938 Polish Eagle Radom that I purchased four years ago for $1600 just went on the GB auction side for $2700. Good shooting! 0 -
The collapse of the stock market has also brought fresh money into the high quality firearm and collector market. 0 -
I would like to add a simple question.
If we are in a recession and so many people are out of work,
where is the money comming from to purchase guns?0 -
In the last couple of years or so I have seen fewer collectibles in the way of a lot of the older, non-commemorative type Winchester models coming up for auction that are in the excellent plus condition category. On the other hand, there might well be more of these same type pieces up for auction that are in less than excellent condition due to being over priced, so you might want to consider this factor where the "lower end stuff" is concerned.
There could be a number of reasons for what I have mentioned, which range from higher cost due to appreciation in value, which has been significant in both older typical Winchesters and the newer ones including commemoratives, to more gun auction sites being online in the past few years, to cautious concern by would be buyers who are worried about the economy. Whatever the reasons might be, the market during this period of time has seemed somewhat strange as I see it. However, I would not let this deter me from putting something I'd like to sell up for auction, because if it is priced right, it should sell, IMO.0 -
quote:Originally posted by moonshine
I would like to add a simple question.
If we are in a recession and so many people are out of work,
where is the money comming from to purchase guns?
Well, let's talk high-end, if I may:
High end firearms collecting, masterpiece artwork, etc. has proven itself to be recession proof over the years. Remember, true "high end" refers to an item out of reach to the bulk of society.
The high end market is a small, specialized niche and the item will have retained its value, despite economical fluctuations.
Got your eye on that H&H .505 Gibbs double rifle? Be prepared to pay the same now, as you would have paid prior to the recession.
Above post is basically a historic view. Although it in no way guarantees the future, I'll put my money on past performance as a window to the future. Best, Joe0 -
Top end items in any field are seldom effected by the economy because they are purchased by the "more money than brains" crowd. Sorry but that is a fact. What I am currently seeing is that for the more normal collector items, including guns, the prices asked for collectables isn't all that different than it was a couple of years ago. What is different is that it is often a lot harder to find a buyer now than it was two years ago. A gun that might have sold two years ago in about 2 or 3 months time with several interested parties, may now take over a year to sell with only a single interest. 0 -
joe six pack is suseptable to the recession so the prices of joe sixpack type guns are due to fluctuate with the economy.
there is (or was) a qualifyer to that statement as this recession has taken off full swing, Obama and his band of merry men have made no bones about their intent to reinstate AWB, add the brady bill and Blair Holt initiative which will effect handguns so joe sixpack (and everyone else) spent money he shouldn't have spent to get guns he fears will be unavailable in the near future. I think joe sixpack is done buying.(this one is)
I bought my first "assault weapon" at the height of this spending spree, that lapse in judgement has cost me $300 so far as prices have fallen on everything SIG (AR< CETME<AND KALISHNIKOFF)0
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