COVID-19 Test Accuracy

truthful

December 27, 2020 04:14

It seems that all the scare headlines about new COVID outbreaks and infection surges are based almost entirely on test results, not on people with new symptoms. It would appear that testing is being pushed and pushed, seemingly in a desperate search to pad the numbers. Has anyone seen any credible reports of studies that show what the test accuracy is? I can't find any. The only one I recall is when Elon Musk had himself tested four times on the same day, by the same nurse, and the same lab. He had two positives and two negatives. I know a number of people who have tested positive, but not one ever came down with any symptoms.

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  BikerBob

  December 27, 2020 11:43

  I think that the result vary based on the type of test. The early tests were the nasal swabs, then spit tests made there way into use.

  Now the newer more accurate tests are:

  -nasal swabs that get mixed with reagents,

  -blood draws,

  both of which get tested on high volume blood testing machines that are used to test you for your regular blood work.

  One of the issues, to your point, is that in the data a test is a test. Independent of the method used, early quick cheap inaccurate or more involved/more accurate.

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  nmyers

  December 27, 2020 21:05

  Truthful, you make a good point. If you have no symptoms, there's no reason for you to spend your time & money getting tested (unless you need to provide the results to your employer or airline). The test results are used to calculate the daily "positivity rate", a rough estimate of how much the disease has spread. This doesn't do you any good, but it helps the graduate students working on their advanced degrees. The mayors & governors already know that they are in deep trouble.

  The CDC has a lot of information on their website, but I have never seen a list of the tests & their accuracy. They do have the accuracy of all approved antibody tests, but they are of little use to researchers & worthless to the general public; flipping a coin would give you approximately the same results. Don't lose hope, there are several labs working on better tests.

  The CDC employees are doing an outstanding job, despite all this. They are dedicated scientists who do their best despite hiring freezes, salary freezes, & no cost of living increases, because it is the right thing to do.

  Neal

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