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Economic Prediction

mogley98
Dow will see 17K or less. I don't believe the March 20 lows were the end of the bear market even though the market has surged since then.
If you look at any other significant drop in the market it didn't happen just once, the depression market dropped over three years or so, 2008 rolled into 2009, While many seem to be charging headlong into the market (A friend just bought a bunch of Hertz figuring it will come back even though on the brink of Bankruptcy) I feel like we haven't even seen the real damage yet.
30 Million unemployed will not go back tomorrow. Car payments will be missed, inventory will be sold at losses, real estate will slow to a stop, credit cards being maxed today will not be paid tomorrow. We are talking about a generation of people who borrowed heavily for college and in a large part choose not to pay it back. They fully expect to get taken care of by a Government willing to borrow its way out without a dime going to true "shovel ready" infrastructure repair/improvement very UNLIKE the 30's WPA projects.
FWIW Buffett seems to agree he is holding dry powder.
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Comments

21 comments

Date Votes
  • hobo9650
    Soon there will be Phase 4 where TRILLIONS will be on the Liberal wish list.   Everyone will be rich.  Might get a few hundred each while the blue States want their debt paid off.  It's just paper, so keep printing it while the market hits 30,000 then crashes.

    The virus proves how dependent we are on the Gov't.

    South America is an example of what our country will look like for millions.
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  • bpost
    How could there possibly be future issues when our Government spends trillions we don't have ?
    0
  • montanajoe
    • Community moderator
    bpost said:
    How could there possibly be future issues when our Government spends trillions we don't have ?
    ...the millennials will pay it back, with the free money they get.  
    6
  • buddyb
    I think the economy now is like a coiled spring and will come back strong if this virus is controlled.If there is a second round of the pandemic then I will agree with the gloom and doom predictions.
    3
  • mohawk600
    It will come back as it was before.
    0
  • Brookwood
    Quote; FWIW Buffett seems to agree he is holding dry powder.

    Last I heard, he was wasting away down in margarita ville. Looking for a salt shaker.     :o
    0
  • select-fire
    Buffet is out of the airline stocks . Stock market will see 16k or maybe less. Virus will be back before election day. Sales of new homes will slow, Credit card debt will overtake banks for bail out .
    0
  • yoshmyster

    The market ain't done falling. Just caught an updraft. It has like another 3 or maybe 6 more quarters or a presidential election (which ever comes first). If the dems get their puppet in, some miracle of miracles will happen where they'll spin COVID as some common flu. Nothing to worry about. That crazy Trump spun it as a global killer or some other blame. 

    I reckon used cars (aka repo) will be flooding the market unless they suggest them destroyed so no one will be "harmed" (bank's bottom line) from second hand COVID from cars. I better start saving for the 2014 SS (the rebadged Holden) for half the going price.

    0
  • truthful
    Rest assured, that immediately after the November election, the COVID-19 virus will mysteriously disappear, just as it mysteriously appeared immediately after the impeachment fiasco. 
    0
  • SW0320
    mogley98 said:
    Dow will see 17K or less. I don't believe the March 20 lows were the end of the bear market even though the market has surged since then.
    If you look at any other significant drop in the market it didn't happen just once, the depression market dropped over three years or so, 2008 rolled into 2009, While many seem to be charging headlong into the market (A friend just bought a bunch of Hertz figuring it will come back even though on the brink of Bankruptcy) I feel like we haven't even seen the real damage yet.
    30 Million unemployed will not go back tomorrow. Car payments will be missed, inventory will be sold at losses, real estate will slow to a stop, credit cards being maxed today will not be paid tomorrow. We are talking about a generation of people who borrowed heavily for college and in a large part choose not to pay it back. They fully expect to get taken care of by a Government willing to borrow its way out without a dime going to true "shovel ready" infrastructure repair/improvement very UNLIKE the 30's WPA projects.
    FWIW Buffett seems to agree he is holding dry powder.
    The last line of your post is the best. Buffett made his money by buying low and selling high.  If he is not buying now then we have not hit the bottom yet.
    0
  • serf
    The Fed's start buying ETF's and Bonds today for Corporations in need. The Federal Debt will be astronomical as far as the eye can see. You see The Government will do anything to keep the economy from sinking below the waterline. Good luck for the we the people will be the losers. China will be absolved and given Providence to proceed to expand. Heck GM and Tesla will both be winners in China, very soon. Nationalism is dead for The International corporations, profits is it's only mean.The Central Banks will comply for The Billionaires can lobby better than citizens. No jobs too bad .
                                                          serf
       Stabilization Phase: The facility will begin with purchases of ETFs, and be "focused on reducing the broad-based deterioration of liquidity seen in March 2020 to levels that correspond more closely to prevailing economic conditions." Purchases during this phase will occur at a higher pace than subsequent phases.


    0
  • pulsarnc

    Currently looking to buy a new to me truck . Actively searching for a repo at a good deal

    3
  • Don McManus
    serf said:
    The Fed's start buying ETF's and Bonds today for Corporations in need. The Federal Debt will be astronomical as far as the eye can see. You see The Government will do anything to keep the economy from sinking below the waterline. Good luck for the we the people will be the losers. China will be absolved and given Providence to proceed to expand. Heck GM and Tesla will both be winners in China, very soon. Nationalism is dead for The International corporations, profits is it's only mean.The Central Banks will comply for The Billionaires can lobby better than citizens. No jobs too bad .
                                                          serf
       Stabilization Phase: The facility will begin with purchases of ETFs, and be "focused on reducing the broad-based deterioration of liquidity seen in March 2020 to levels that correspond more closely to prevailing economic conditions." Purchases during this phase will occur at a higher pace than subsequent phases.


    OTOH, the Fed could be buying these with the assumption that upon a recovery they can be sold at a significant profit.  Short term stabilization with the end result being a net gain and reduction in exposure by the Fed.  I have made some attempts at stabilization and with the 5%+ swings day to day last month, have done reasonably well.  Of course this can be decried as a bail out of Wall Street, just as some idiots were calling the plan to fill the strategic petroleum reserves with $ 20.00 oil a bail out of the oil industry.  
    If you are betting on an eventual return of the economy, now is not a bad time to buy.  
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  • Okie
    pulsarnc said:

    Currently looking to buy a new to me truck . Actively searching for a repo at a good deal

    I've got a couple of them new to me trucks, 1971, 1976, 1977, 1980. I watch the Salvage yard for NEW arrivals. I seen a guy few days ago walking around taking parts of of some of my daily drivers. When I ask him to leave he said he thought this was the salvage yard he had heard about in this area. When I priced the parts he had removed he thanked me and took them. My stimulus check has not arrived yet.

    Rich people drive old vec's because they like to. I drive old NEW Vec's because I have to.


    0
  • Junkballer
    The only thing I'll buy in the next 12/24 months is farm land and I already own plenty.  Stocks come and go, vehicles come and go, banks come and go, airlines come and go.........as Grand-paw use to say, farm land is forever  ;)          
    9
  • SW0320
    Junkballer said:
    The only thing I'll buy in the next 12/24 months is farm land and I already own plenty.  Stocks come and go, vehicles come and go, banks come and go, airlines come and go.........as Grand-paw use to say, farm land is forever  ;)          
    That is true.  When I bought land to build a house, the builder said buy the biggest piece of land you can and build a smaller house, you can add onto the house but it is harder to add onto the land.  We bought almost 50 acres and have put two additions onto the house.  Now land around me goes for 60k an acre and keeps on going up.
    3
  • serf
    serf said:
    The Fed's start buying ETF's and Bonds today for Corporations in need. The Federal Debt will be astronomical as far as the eye can see. You see The Government will do anything to keep the economy from sinking below the waterline. Good luck for the we the people will be the losers. China will be absolved and given Providence to proceed to expand. Heck GM and Tesla will both be winners in China, very soon. Nationalism is dead for The International corporations, profits is it's only mean.The Central Banks will comply for The Billionaires can lobby better than citizens. No jobs too bad .
                                                          serf
       Stabilization Phase: The facility will begin with purchases of ETFs, and be "focused on reducing the broad-based deterioration of liquidity seen in March 2020 to levels that correspond more closely to prevailing economic conditions." Purchases during this phase will occur at a higher pace than subsequent phases.


    OTOH, the Fed could be buying these with the assumption that upon a recovery they can be sold at a significant profit.  Short term stabilization with the end result being a net gain and reduction in exposure by the Fed.  I have made some attempts at stabilization and with the 5%+ swings day to day last month, have done reasonably well.  Of course this can be decried as a bail out of Wall Street, just as some idiots were calling the plan to fill the strategic petroleum reserves with $ 20.00 oil a bail out of the oil industry.  
    If you are betting on an eventual return of the economy, now is not a bad time to buy.  

     Not today OTOH and this is not 2009 with TARP time this is ten years later with at least 10 trillion dollars more debt on the books with The Federal reserve and a virus that may or may not go away,A vaccine may help some but not here for a least a year.  And if the bond market goes south look for hyperinflation. The wish list just grows and grows~ :o

                                                serf
     

    House Democrats unveil new $3 trillion coronavirus relief bill?

                   Another Mother of all  debt Bombs from Nancy Pelosi and the stupid congress.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-updates-house-democrats-unveil-3-trillion-relief-bill.html
    • Nearly $1 trillion in relief for state and local governments 
    • A second round of direct payments of $1,200 per person, and up to $6,000 for a household
    • About $200 billion for hazard pay for essential workers who face heightened health risks during the crisis
    • $75 billion for coronavirus testing and contact tracing — a key effort to restart businesses
    • An extension of the $600 per week federal unemployment insurance benefit through January (the provision approved in March is set to expire after July)
    • $175 billion in rent, mortgage and utility assistance 
    • Subsidies and a special Affordable Care Act enrollment period to people who lose their employer-sponsored health coverage
    • More money for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, including a 15% increase in the maximum benefit
    • Measures designed to buoy small businesses and help them keep employees on payroll, such as $10 billion in emergency disaster assistance grants and a strengthened employee retention tax credit
    • Money for election safety during the pandemic and provisions to make voting by mail easier
    • Relief for the U.S. Postal Service
    • Nearly $1 trillion in relief for state and local governments 
    • A second round of direct payments of $1,200 per person, and up to $6,000 for a household
    • About $200 billion for hazard pay for essential workers who face heightened health risks during the crisis
    • $75 billion for coronavirus testing and contact tracing — a key effort to restart businesses
    • An extension of the $600 per week federal unemployment insurance benefit through January (the provision approved in March is set to expire after July)
    • $175 billion in rent, mortgage and utility assistance 
    • Subsidies and a special Affordable Care Act enrollment period to people who lose their employer-sponsored health coverage
    • More money for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, including a 15% increase in the maximum benefit
    • Measures designed to buoy small businesses and help them keep employees on payroll, such as $10 billion in emergency disaster assistance grants and a strengthened employee retention tax credit
    • Money for election safety during the pandemic and provisions to make voting by mail easier
    • Relief for the U.S. Postal Service




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  • Butchdog2
    Ho re cow! Ain't nobody going to go back to work if Piglosi has her way.
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  • jltrent
    There will be a vaccine shortly and in a couple of years most want even remember the name of the virus.
    0
  • mjrfd99
    Butchdog2 said:
    Ho re cow! Ain't nobody going to go back to work if Piglosi has her way.
    That's the d-rat plan.  Check suckers vote d-rat.  
    They want you dependent on dear leader for handouts THEY  deem necessary.
    And some say the chinaman isn't working for the d-rats.  
    That brick by brick  should be applied to d-rat heads repeatedly for treason.  

    0
  • serf
    mjrfd99 said:
    Butchdog2 said:
    Ho re cow! Ain't nobody going to go back to work if Piglosi has her way.
    That's the d-rat plan.  Check suckers vote d-rat.  
    They want you dependent on dear leader for handouts THEY  deem necessary.
    And some say the chinaman isn't working for the d-rats.  
    That brick by brick  should be applied to d-rat heads repeatedly for treason.  

      You don't mean like Snakes on the plane?Yep snakes is quite descriptive of the Shadow government and The Democrats.
           If you have the power you can make officials see it your way and that is corruption!
     
                                serf

    Lynch was in the hot seat before Congress following reports that she had met secretly with Bill Clinton even as the Justice Department was actively investigating the former president's wife. Lynch, who claimed it was just an impromptu meeting between old friends, refused to recuse herself from the case. Rather, she assured the public she would accept whatever charge the FBI recommended.

    The former attorney general also said during her 2016 congressional testimony, “As I've indicated, I've determined to accept that recommendation and did, in fact, accept that recommendation.”

    She added, “[M]y decision was to accept the recommendation of the team of agents and investigators who worked on this. … They've applied the facts to that law and came up with a unanimous recommendation, a joint recommendation in effect that was provided to me.”


    Lisa Page testimony means DOJ might want to re-open case against Hillary Clinton

     I doubt Trump will proceed to do this however. Hillary is a crook anyway.

    FBI Rewrites Federal Law to Let Hillary Off the Hook?

     
    In essence, in order to give Mrs. Clinton a pass, the FBI rewrote the statute, inserting an intent element that Congress did not require. The added intent element, moreover, makes no sense: The point of having a statute that criminalizes gross negligence is to underscore that government officials have a special obligation to safeguard national defense secrets; when they fail to carry out that obligation due to gross negligence, they are guilty of serious wrongdoing. The lack of intent to harm our country is irrelevant. People never intend the bad things that happen due to gross negligence.
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