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Allen Griggs

He Dog
Hey my friend, I believe your prediction for the US death toll from Covid 19 was 22,000.  According to the CDC it stands a little over 18,000 today.  I think you are going to be low, way low since we have not yet hit the worst of it nationwide yet.  I do hope it will not be the 100,000 to 200,000 predicted.  
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Comments

12 comments

Date Votes
  • truthful
    Estimates for COVID-19 deaths in the US made by experts and amateurs alike need to be considered in light of what is typical for flu-caused deaths in the US in a normal flu season. The CDC web site shows the US flu-caused deaths in the US for the last eight flu seasons. The average is right at 38,000 deaths in one flu season. The current 18,000 COVID-19 deaths need to double to reach the average. The range for the last eight years is 12,000 in 2011-2012, to 61,000 in 2017-2018. Do you remember that horrible 2017 - 2018 flu and all the measures we were forced to take to survive it? No? I don't remember it either.
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  • danielgage
    I don't think we can ever get the correct number of deaths actually from this virus seems like almost every death now days they are saying is from this virus or complication from it
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  • LOKO383
    It's officially over 20k at this hr..sadly..
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  • SCOUT5
    danielgage said:
    I don't think we can ever get the correct number of deaths actually from this virus seems like almost every death now days they are saying is from this virus or complication from it
    Correct
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  • He Dog
    truthful said:
    Estimates for COVID-19 deaths in the US made by experts and amateurs alike need to be considered in light of what is typical for flu-caused deaths in the US in a normal flu season. The CDC web site shows the US flu-caused deaths in the US for the last eight flu seasons. The average is right at 38,000 deaths in one flu season. The current 18,000 COVID-19 deaths need to double to reach the average. The range for the last eight years is 12,000 in 2011-2012, to 61,000 in 2017-2018. Do you remember that horrible 2017 - 2018 flu and all the measures we were forced to take to survive it? No? I don't remember it either.


    And thus far we are not quite 6 weeks into that season, and most who got the flu and died of it were those not vaccinated.  There is no vaccine for this as yet.


    FCD, I am not dissing Allen in any way, he is a valued friend. 

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  • TRAP55
    As of today, 400,000 have recovered, but that doesn't seem to be panic news worthy.
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  • spasmcreeksrun
    wonder if we or any govt is going to send china a thank you for the freebie ?????
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  • TRAP55
    I'm all for running a tally of economic, medical, and loss of life costs, and deducting that from the Obama borrowing debt to China.
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  • allen griggs
    Yes it looks like my prediction was off.   We shall have to see.
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  • BobJudy
    It looks like everyone's predictions have been off. Either social distancing and the rest of the draconian restrictions are working or the virus problem was over blown  I choose at this point to believe the former. Since the current theory is that 50 - 75% that have the virus do not show symptoms but can infect the vulnerable the only way to slow or stop the spread is social distancing. Otherwise healthy looking people killing the vulnerable is a legitimate worry. Bob
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  • SW0320
    BobJudy said:
    It looks like everyone's predictions have been off. Either social distancing and the rest of the draconian restrictions are working or the virus problem was over blown  I choose at this point to believe the former. Since the current theory is that 50 - 75% that have the virus do not show symptoms but can infect the vulnerable the only way to slow or stop the spread is social distancing. Otherwise healthy looking people killing the vulnerable is a legitimate worry. Bob
    I agree with social distancing, I spoke with a friend whose brother is a doctor and he stated he was told by his brother it is as you described about not knowing you have COVID, but the big catch is as the doctor stated this thing is HIGHLY contagious.

    That is why I do not know why most of the nursing homes and veterans facilities were not locked down and workers tested first and constantly as these are some of the most vulnerable populations.

     Even in our small town an assisted living facility has now had three COVID cases and a local veterans home has had over 25 dead from COVID.


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  • allen griggs
    I predicted 22,000 US deaths.  We had a very important doctor, 3 weeks ago, predicting 250,000 US deaths.
    We shall see.
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