Just A Thought RE: Coronavirus And Avoiding Same
I had a chilling thought. Let's suppose a person lives alone or in a small family group, in a secure dwelling, and has no need to go out. All bills are paid and all shopping is done online, and everything, even groceries, is delivered. He has no control over how those deliveries are handled, or by whom, before they were actually placed on the doorstep. Any time he steps out to bring in a box from Walmart or Amazon, he could very well be bringing the coronavirus into his home.
So, we can be careful. We can be cautious. We can take extraordinary steps to protect ourselves. But, in the final analysis, plain old dumb luck, or the lack of it, is a major factor.
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Denial. That is what us humans do.
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The death rate for Americans over weeks 7 - 10 of 2020 is roughly 1,000 people per day less than is was for the same period in 2019. Not sure that it means anything other than you had a better chance of dying in March of last year than in March of this year.
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
April may be different. Time will tell.0 -
Deaths from influenza and pneumonia seem to be tracking proportionally along with total deaths year over year, but you bring up a good point regarding case definitions and data collection.Barzillia said:
???Don McManus said:The death rate for Americans over weeks 7 - 10 of 2020 is roughly 1,000 people per day less than is was for the same period in 2019. Not sure that it means anything other than you had a better chance of dying in March of last year than in March of this year.
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
April may be different. Time will tell.
The 2020 death rate for Americans from influenza and pneumonia during March is a provisional number, due to the case definitions and means of data collection.
Since flu seasons vary from year to tear as to their peak incidence, I agree with you about what you are posting actually means.
How, for example, is this being addressed for Covid-19 deaths?
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/guidance-postmortem-specimens.html
We are collecting post-mortem samples to test for Covid-19. This is potentially good for future reference, but does it inflate the numbers in that a death where the virus is present goes into the Covid-19 tally regardless of whether it was the virus or an underlying condition that killed the person? Many if not most reports regarding an individual who is classified as dying from Covid-19 are referenced as dying of complications associated with the virus or similar language.
Not dismissing the severity of the virus in some, nor the fact that it seems to have killed some without any underlying health issues. While health care professionals may use the post-mortem testing for data collection and to build an understanding for future events, there are those that could mis-use the data by suggesting that a person with a 10 day prognosis due to congestive heart failure was killed by the virus rather than by the congestive heart failure.
Not to be crass, but with trillions of dollars being thrown about, there are going to be people who will skew results and/or use skewed results for personal gain. Looking at total deaths year over year may provide context for the current situation while still recognizing this for what it is or potentially can be.0 -
I am concerned because I am witnessing the deliberate destruction of the economy of my country, and hope that those that are destroying it are not being manipulated into it with data that is not being seriously vetted. Due to the shuttering of much of the business in this country the Stock market as shed $ 8 trillion to $ 10 trillion in value, and the Federal Government is spending upwards of $ 6 trillion dollars (depending upon what source one chooses to believe) is being spent to prop up the economy.
If $ 6 trillion saves 200,000 lives it works out to $ 30 million per life. While some may fancy their life to be worth that, from a practical standpoint, we know it is not the case, as there is not $ 30 million available to spend on every person in this country. If it saves 2,000,000 lives it works out to $ 3 million per life. A more manageable number, but even with a bottomless Federal Reserve, the $ 990 trillion total for every American is a pretty big nut.
The point of course, is that there are limits to what we should do to mitigate the spread of this virus, and these limits must be rationally discussed.
So (and back to the original post on this thread) the risk of contracting the virus can be mitigated, but not eliminated. Are we doing things just to do them and ignoring the long term costs, or are we/should we be looking at the totality of our reaction and perhaps mitigating the mitigation?3 -
Nunn, they say that packages and mail are no threat. I am not sure I believe that. I keep hand sanitizer in the garage. Packages and mail go into cardboard boxes, I sanitize and 48 hours later we open them. They say 24 hours is enough., I say, "what could an extra 24 hurt?" 0 -
Don McManus said:I am concerned because I am witnessing the deliberate destruction of the economy of my country, and hope that those that are destroying it are not being manipulated into it with data that is not being seriously vetted. Due to the shuttering of much of the business in this country the Stock market as shed $ 8 trillion to $ 10 trillion in value, and the Federal Government is spending upwards of $ 6 trillion dollars (depending upon what source one chooses to believe) is being spent to prop up the economy.
If $ 6 trillion saves 200,000 lives it works out to $ 30 million per life. While some may fancy their life to be worth that, from a practical standpoint, we know it is not the case, as there is not $ 30 million available to spend on every person in this country. If it saves 2,000,000 lives it works out to $ 3 million per life. A more manageable number, but even with a bottomless Federal Reserve, the $ 990 trillion total for every American is a pretty big nut.
The point of course, is that there are limits to what we should do to mitigate the spread of this virus, and these limits must be rationally discussed.
So (and back to the original post on this thread) the risk of contracting the virus can be mitigated, but not eliminated. Are we doing things just to do them and ignoring the long term costs, or are we/should we be looking at the totality of our reaction and perhaps mitigating the mitigation?
A very well-reasoned assessment here. The sad reality is that there IS a limit. While we can implement risk mitigation into our daily lives, we can't hide out forever. While we should take immediately necessary fiscal measures, we can't write a blank check for this crisis. What about the next one? If we spend and quarantine ourselves into a national, and consequently, global depression, many more will die and our grand-kids will face the very real potential for national default and collapse.
Whew! I feel better.......and worse.
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